SpaceX has become one of the most talked-about investments in the world. After years of being available only to private investors and venture capital firms, the company’s IPO has generated enormous excitement among retail investors eager to own a piece of Elon Musk’s space empire.
SpaceX has finally gone public, and investors can’t seem to get enough of it. The stock’s IPO price debuted at $135/share and quickly surged above $200, valuing the company at more than $2 trillion and making the largest IPO in history.
The excitement is understandable. Founded by Elon Musk in 2002, SpaceX transformed the space industry through reusable rockets, government contracts, and its rapidly growing Starlink satellite internet network. What was once a startup with an ambitious vision has become a dominant force in commercial space launches and satellite communications.
Today, SpaceX’s business is built on three primary areas:
- Launch Services – Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship provide launch capabilities for commercial, government, and military customers.
- Starlink – A global satellite internet network that has become the company’s fastest-growing revenue source.
- Government Contracts – Long-term partnerships with NASA, the Department of Defense, and other agencies.
Financially, the company has experienced explosive growth over the last few years. Revenue increased from approximately $8.7 billion in 2023 to nearly $19 billion in 2025. BUT the company posted a net loss of almost $5 billion in 2025.
Much of that growth has come from Starlink, which is becoming an increasingly important part of the business. While recent investments in Starlink expansion and Starship development have pressured profitability, management appears focused on long-term growth rather than short-term earnings.
Why has the stock risen so dramatically since its IPO?
The answer is simple: demand is overwhelming supply.
Investors are attracted to nearly every theme that SpaceX represents—space exploration, satellite communications, artificial intelligence infrastructure, government contracts, and, of course, Elon Musk. The stock has also benefited from the launch of options trading, which can create additional buying pressure as market makers hedge their positions by purchasing shares.
Another major tailwind is index inclusion. SpaceX is expected to join major stock indexes, and will be added to Nasdaq 100 Index soon. It is also being added to several SpaceX focused ETFs. This is forcing ETFs and index funds to buy billions of dollars worth of shares. This type of buying is not based on valuation or fundamentals—it happens simply because the stock becomes part of an index/ETF.
These factors can create powerful momentum, and momentum has certainly been working in SpaceX’s favor. However, investors should understand that there is another side to the story.
Unlike traditional IPOs that lock up insider shares for approximately 180 days, SpaceX has implemented a staggered lockup schedule. Over the coming months, significant amounts of stock held by insiders, employees, and early investors will become available for sale.
Why does that matter? Because stock prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand.
Right now, demand is extremely high while the supply of tradable shares remains relatively limited. As lockup restrictions expire, the number of available shares will increase substantially. Many early investors purchased shares years ago at dramatically lower valuations and may choose to take some profits. That doesn’t mean these investors have lost faith in the company. It simply means they finally have the opportunity to sell.
Caveat Emptor
Historically, many high-profile IPOs experience increased volatility once lockup periods expire and additional shares become available to the public market. This is one reason investors should be careful about assuming the stock will continue moving straight up.
To be clear, none of this suggests SpaceX is a bad company. In fact, it may ultimately become one of the most important companies of the 21st century. The company dominates commercial launches, operates one of the world’s largest satellite networks, and continues pushing technological boundaries that many competitors cannot match.
But there is a difference between buying a great company and buying a great stock at a reasonable price.
History is filled with exceptional companies whose shares became temporarily overvalued because investors assumed growth would continue indefinitely. Eventually, excitement gives way to fundamentals. Revenue growth, earnings, cash flow, and execution become far more important than headlines and hype.
The bottom line?
SpaceX has an incredible future, but investors should remember that no stock goes up in a straight line. Current tailwinds—including ETF buying, index inclusion, options activity, and limited share availability—may continue supporting the stock in the near term. The real test will come as additional shares enter the market and investors begin focusing more closely on valuation and earnings.
As investors, it’s important to separate our excitement about a company from the price we’re willing to pay for its stock. SpaceX may very well become a long-term winner. Just don’t assume that every hot IPO is headed to $5,000 per share without a few bumps along the way.
If you have questions about your own portfolio or investments such as SpaceX, we can help. If you are a new client, you can schedule a strategy session to talk about your portfolio, equity allocations and any actions you could be taking with an expert. If you are a current client, contact us for a personal review of your portfolio at info@astifinancial.com.