We’ve all heard the phrase: “Sell in May and go away.”
It’s catchy. It’s simple. And like many simple investing rules… it’s often misunderstood—and sometimes just wrong.
Where Did “Sell in May” Come From?
Historically, markets have performed better from November through April than from May through October. That’s the origin of the saying.
But here’s the key distinction most people miss:
Lower returns ≠ negative returns.
The May–October period hasn’t historically been bad—just less strong on average. And in many recent years, that “weaker” period has actually delivered significant gains.
- Last year, the S&P 500 rose 22.8% during the May–October window
- Over the last 10 years, May itself has been positive 9 out of 10 times
- Average May return: ~1.4%
- Last May alone: +6.2%
That doesn’t exactly scream “get out of the market.”
Why This Time May Be Even More Important
Markets don’t move based on calendar sayings—they move based on momentum, sentiment, and underlying conditions.
Right now, one of the most important signals we’re seeing is the potential for a V-shaped recovery.
A V-shaped recovery happens when markets drop sharply… and then rebound just as quickly. Historically, when this pattern occurs, it often leads to continued upside momentum—not a pause or pullback.
In other words:
👉 Some of the strongest gains can come after the recovery begins
👉 Sitting on the sidelines can mean missing the most powerful part of the move
The Real Risk Isn’t Staying Invested
It’s getting out… and missing the rebound.
Markets don’t send invitations when they turn. The biggest up days often happen close to the worst down days. If you step out “just for May,” you risk missing gains that can significantly impact long-term returns.
This is where discipline matters more than timing.
What Smart Investors Do Instead
Rather than trying to outguess the calendar, focus on what actually works:
- Stay aligned with your long-term plan
- Maintain a well-diversified portfolio
- Make adjustments based on strategy—not headlines or sayings
- Keep cash reserves for stability (not market timing)
What to Do Now
- Don’t make reactive moves based on seasonal clichés
- Review your portfolio allocation—make sure it still matches your goals
- Stay invested through volatility—that’s where long-term returns come from
Bottom Line
“Sell in May and go away” makes for a great headline.
But real wealth isn’t built on catchy phrases—it’s built on consistency, discipline, and staying invested when it matters most.
And sometimes… that includes May.
If you have questions about your portfolio and if you should rebalance or make changes, we can help! If you are a new client, you can schedule a strategy session to talk about your unique situation with an expert. If you are a current client, contact us for a personal review of your situation at info@astifinancial.com.